I pediatri nel prossimo futuro: la domanda e l’offerta

Based on available information on the turnover of paediatricians and on demographic trends, the Author estimates the need for paediatricians over the next two decades in Italy. The number of paediatricians, which at present are 13.600, with about 60% of them employed in primary care, and the peadiatrician to children ratio are expected to slowly increase, then reach a plateau in the year 2015, then rapidly decrease due to a high retirement rate not compensated by new entries. The possible scenarios which may be the consequence of this trend are briefly discussed.